Continued upward trend of gold and silver
Editing: Dimitris Stamoulis
Gold remained perched at prices above $ 1,300 per ounce
The Thomson Reuters agency recently announced its forecast for the fourth quarter of 2016 on the evolution of prices of gold and silver, in the background the unexpected voting for the British exit from the European Union last June.
The Erica Rannestad, the Thomson Reuters GFMS analysis head, which is headquartered in Chicago, USA, said that analysts expect a decline of the yellow precious metal prices in the third quarter. In the forecast announced last April the Thomson Reuters gave for gold averaged $ 1,200 per ounce in the third quarter and $ 1,250 per ounce for the fourth quarter.
The platinum jewelery has been hit by the recession that has hit the Chinese market, which is the largest worldwide
Gold and Brexit
However, as commented Rannestad, the market did not calculate the parameter of the negative vote of the British regarding the eve of the country’s EU and the initial forecasts for prices of precious metals have not take into account the possibility of a Brexit.
During the year, people buy gold as facing the precious metal as a “safe haven” in a global economic condition with big problems, and with the price of gold constantly receives upward pressure. The vote in favor of Brexit further contributed to the consolidation of the perception that investment in gold is more secure than any other at this juncture, as highlighted by the head analysis of Thomson Reuters GFMS.
The data kitco.com -istoselida leading analysts of precious metal market indicate that after staying in the gold price in a range between 1,200 and $ 1,300 per ounce for more than a year, the price of the metal jumped from $ 1,262 which was on June 23, the day the British referendum, at $ 1,315, the next day.
Despite successive ups and downs of the price that followed the Brexit decision, gold remained perched at prices above $ 1,300 per ounce since then, closing July with an average price at $ 1,337 per ounce, far more than the $ 1,276 which was the average price of June both under the Kitco.
So the Thomson Reuters proceeded to revise the forecast for the third quarter giving average price at $ 1,310 for the fourth quarter to $ 1,365, and all these pending another big electoral test of next autumn’s presidential elections in the US, between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.
To close the year, the Thomson Reuters now provides that gold will average US $ 1,279, increased compared with the original forecast of $ 1,212.
From his part, Dave Siminski, the United Precious Metals, is even more optimistic about the height of the gold price to the closing of the year. As stated, the assessment is that the yellow metal will close 2016 with an average price of around $ 1,375 per ounce.
Initial estimates of the prices of precious metals have not take into account the possibility of a Brexit
Thus arises the question of what will be the impact on gold prices by the victory of either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump? The Rannestad can not give an informed answer to this question, noting that “it all depends on the level of uncertainty that the market will post the result will occur.” He added: “I’m not really sure how the market and the business community perceives the two candidates in terms of who could be good or bad (in terms of gold prices).”
Silver eclipsed gold in terms of the evolution of the price last year, and this is expected to continue. Its price rose steadily during 2016, starting at $ 15 per ounce and reaching up to $ 20.
The Thomson Reuters estimates that the white metal will rise to $ 19.2 in the fourth quarter of 2016, price increased from the initial forecast was $ 16.8, and will close the year with $ 17.24, price increased by 15 , 91 dollars. The Siminski the United Precious Metals believes that silver will close at $ 19.74 for 2016.
Regarding the price of platinum, the Thomson Reuters notes that the price remains stable since April. The provision does is that it will close in the fourth quarter of 2016 at an average price of $ 1,060 and in 2016 to $ 1005.6 per ounce. Like all show, therefore, platinum would remain sufficiently far back from gold regarding the near future.
Demand for platinum from the automotive industry remains constant. The jewelery has been hit by the recession that has hit the Chinese market, which is the largest market for platinum jewelery worldwide. Apart from these, the platinum mining companies do not limit their production, in line with the actual needs of the market, thus creating an oversupply in the market with similar impact on the structure of the platinum price.
“This poor situation associated with the supply and demand determines the current picture of the price of platinum,” says Rannestad.
Finally, with regard to another popular noble metal, palladium, Thomson Reuters predicts that the price will remain stable. This white metal is expected to close at $ 594.89 per ounce in 2016. The Siminski brought much more optimistic about the price of platinum speaking of $ 1,055 at the close of the year.