Continued upward trend of gold and silver
Editing: Dimitris Stamoulis
Gold remained perched at prices above $ 1,300 per ounce
The Thomson Reuters agency recently announced its forecast for the fourth quarter of 2016 on the evolution of prices of gold and silver, in the background the unexpected voting for the British exit from the European Union last June.
The Erica Rannestad, the Thomson Reuters GFMS analysis head, which is headquartered in Chicago, USA, said that analysts expect a decline of the yellow precious metal prices in the third quarter. In the forecast announced last April the Thomson Reuters gave for gold averaged $ 1,200 per ounce in the third quarter and $ 1,250 per ounce for the fourth quarter.
The platinum jewelery has been hit by the recession that has hit the Chinese market, which is the largest worldwide
Gold and Brexit
However, as commented Rannestad, the market did not calculate the parameter of the negative vote of the British regarding the eve of the country’s EU and the initial forecasts for prices of precious metals have not take into account the possibility of a Brexit.
During the year, people buy gold as facing the precious metal as a “safe haven” in a global economic condition with big problems, and with the price of gold constantly receives upward pressure. The vote in favor of Brexit further contributed to the consolidation of the perception that investment in gold is more secure than any other at this juncture, as highlighted by the head analysis of Thomson Reuters GFMS.
The data kitco.com -istoselida leading analysts of precious metal market indicate that after staying in the gold price in a range between 1,200 and $ 1,300 per ounce for more than a year, the price of the metal jumped from $ 1,262 which was on June 23, the day the British referendum, at $ 1,315, the next day.
Despite successive ups and downs of the price that followed the Brexit decision, gold remained perched at prices above $ 1,300 per ounce since then, closing July with an average price at $ 1,337 per ounce, far more than the $ 1,276 which was the average price of June both under the Kitco.
So the Thomson Reuters proceeded to revise the forecast for the third quarter giving average price at $ 1,310 for the fourth quarter to $ 1,365, and all these pending another big electoral test of next autumn’s presidential elections in the US, between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.
To close the year, the Thomson Reuters now provides that gold will average US $ 1,279, increased compared with the original forecast of $ 1,212.
From his part, Dave Siminski, the United Precious Metals, is even more optimistic about the height of the gold price to the closing of the year. As stated, the assessment is that the yellow metal will close 2016 with an average price of around $ 1,375 per ounce.
Initial estimates of the prices of precious metals have not take into account the possibility of a Brexit
Thus arises the question of what will be the impact on gold prices by the victory of either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump? The Rannestad can not give an informed answer to this question, noting that “it all depends on the level of uncertainty that the market will post the result will occur.” He added: “I’m not really sure how the market and the business community perceives the two candidates in terms of who could be good or bad (in terms of gold prices).”
Silver eclipsed gold in terms of the evolution of the price last year, and this is expected to continue. Its price rose steadily during 2016, starting at $ 15 per ounce and reaching up to $ 20.
The Thomson Reuters estimates that the white metal will rise to $ 19.2 in the fourth quarter of 2016, price increased from the initial forecast was $ 16.8, and will close the year with $ 17.24, price increased by 15 , 91 dollars. The Siminski the United Precious Metals believes that silver will close at $ 19.74 for 2016.
Regarding the price of platinum, the Thomson Reuters notes that the price remains stable since April. The provision does is that it will close in the fourth quarter of 2016 at an average price of $ 1,060 and in 2016 to $ 1005.6 per ounce. Like all show, therefore, platinum would remain sufficiently far back from gold regarding the near future.
Demand for platinum from the automotive industry remains constant. The jewelery has been hit by the recession that has hit the Chinese market, which is the largest market for platinum jewelery worldwide. Apart from these, the platinum mining companies do not limit their production, in line with the actual needs of the market, thus creating an oversupply in the market with similar impact on the structure of the platinum price.
“This poor situation associated with the supply and demand determines the current picture of the price of platinum,” says Rannestad.
Finally, with regard to another popular noble metal, palladium, Thomson Reuters predicts that the price will remain stable. This white metal is expected to close at $ 594.89 per ounce in 2016. The Siminski brought much more optimistic about the price of platinum speaking of $ 1,055 at the close of the year.
Stable demand for gold jewelery remains 2015
Editing: Dimitris Stamoulis
The jewelery demand in India was 654.3 tons and was a record since 2010.
Demand for gold jewelery in 2015 moved to relatively stable levels after the last data became available from the World Gold Council for the fourth quarter, which ended with a marginal decline of 6 tonnes, to 671.4 tons. Together, the third and fourth quarter created a high demand for gold jewelry here eleven years. Specifically, the second half of 2015 rose by 2% reaching 1299.9 tonnes, when the same period of 2014 was at 1271.5 tonnes. In order to detect higher second half of the year should refer 12 years back in 2004, when demand had risen to 1410.7 tons. Summing for all last year, the annual global demand for gold jewelery recorded a decrease of 3% and 66 tonnes, and by 2480.8 tons decreased to 2414.9 tons.
Among the factors that played a role in the remarkable decline include economic and socio who influenced in different markets and countries in 2015. Demand for gold jewelry in countries like Turkey, Russia and the countries of the Middle East have experienced such problems that limited demand . However, as highlighted in the annual report of the WGC, there were a number of countries with positive developments, India overarching recorded a very good last year in the jewelry market.
H China market dominated by 24 carats jewelry, holding 85% of the total turnover.
The Indian recovery
The jewelery demand in India has made significant recovery in the second half of 2015, after a bad second quarter. The annual demand reached 654.3 tons (+ 5%), which was the highest level since 2010 and the third highest record on a yearly basis.
The November and December moved very optimistic as on November 11 launched in Diwali, which is one of the most sacred festivals of the Indians, which marks the start of the wedding season. This period coincided with the meiositon price of the yellow metal, which enabled the Indians to procure their jewelery at lower prices. For the same reason, recycling gold jewelery fell by 10% and was limited to just 20 tons, as well as the low prices acted as a brake on jewelry sale. However it proved for another year, that Indian consumers have unwavering desire for gold jewelery, even when faced with very extreme conditions, especially weather, creating difficult situations in their daily lives, and compress the income of rural populations.
Significant blow received the Turkish jewelry market as demand fell by 26% and limited to only 15 tons.
In the fourth quarter of 2015, demand for gold jewelery in China recorded a slight decline of 1% or 2.8 tonnes closing at 202.6 tonnes. The annual decrease was slightly greater, as he moved to the 3% level (783.5 tonnes compared with 807.2 tonnes). The economic downturn and the turmoil in the stock market in the first half of the year were the primary causes behind this failure, which led to catastrophic consequences in the broader consumer sentiment. Note that the market is dominated by 24 carats jewelry, holding 85% of the total turnover, while the jewels 18 carat characterized by an upward trend, especially through newest jewelery collections.
The rest of Asia
Contradictory is the image of the jewelry market in other Asian countries. Positive demand for gold jewelery was initiated in Japan, Vietnam, Indonesia and South Korea, while the decline was similar image in Thailand, Malaysia, Taiwan and Hong Kong. In particular, Hong Kong paid the close dependence on neighboring China and the sharp drop in tourists who visit it. Impressive was the increase in demand in Vietnam, where in the fourth quarter increased by 31%, while annual growth reached 25%. Indeed, for 2016, the Vietnamese market is expected to move even further upstream.
Demand for gold jewelry in the US increased slightly by 3% in 2015 and rose from 116.6 to 119.6 tons
Turkey: The “sick man”
Significant blow received the Turkish jewelry market as demand fell by 26% and limited to only 15 tons! The neighboring country was the victim of major geopolitical conflict in the region with the Syrian issue, but also with the repeated bombings, particularly in tourist areas and districts of Istanbul and other cities. The Turkish lira remained weak and this year, which resulted to remain high prices of gold jewelery.
The neighboring countries of the Middle East rose by Iran exception. The demand in the region was limited to 224 tonnes, which is less than in 2012. As expected, the decline in oil prices and the ongoing wars in the region have led to a further reduction in demand for gold jewelry.
Fall in Russia
The annual fall in demand in the Russian market more resembled ... precipitation, and reached 39% and was reduced to 41.1 tonnes from 67 tonnes in 2014. Demand literally collapsed in mid-2014, when the conflict began in Ukraine, while the fall in oil honor was another negative factor. However, the estimates of experts speak that the new year will be a slight recovery.
Recovery in the US
Demand for gold jewelry in the US increased slightly by 3% in 2015 and rose from 116.6 to 119.6 tons. The jewelry industry has benefited from the decline in gold prices during the third quarter, a period when many retailers have gone into filling products in order to cope with the increased demand for the fourth quarter Christmas.
Stability in Europe
In the Old World the jewelry market did not show significant differences compared to 2014. Slight increase in the demand for gold jewelry in the UK (1%), better course was in Spain (6%), and adverse effects were recorded in France (-5 %), Germany (-2%) and Italy (-3%). However, many analysts believe that markets like Germany and Italy have already reached their minimum limits and reasonably expected a recovery.
Its contribution has increased by seven times the four years 2000 - 2013
Editing: Dimitris Stamoulis
Very great interest is the new version that released the World Council of Gold (WGC) on the social and economic impact of gold mining, and this at a time when Greece appears divided in connection with the investment of Hellas Gold in Chalkidiki.
Let’s look at some of the highlights of the survey.
1. The total contribution to the global economy from the gold mining amounted to 171 billion. dollars. In particular, however, the business of mining the yellow metal directly the international economy has benefit 83.12 billion. dollars, the year 2013. Note that this amount is equivalent to the gross national product of the countries of Ghana and Tanzania!
2. Total global jobs resulting from international commercial activity related to the mining of gold amounted to 4.2 million. The gold mining companies employed more than one million employees in 2013 and another three million workers employed in activities related to the distribution of the metal and related support services.
3. The most productive gold mining countries, over 90% of workers in this industry were locals. During the investigation, the gold companies have been instrumental in developing the local human capital and the development of labor skills.
4. Over 60% of countries covered by this survey, among the low or middle-income countries with serious developmental needs. It notes however that research is that the business of gold mining is associated with a marked improvement in the income situation of States hosting such investments.
5. 70% of the value offered by gold mining companies in an economy is related to salaries and service payments to local workers and suppliers. Also, the majority of governments of these countries receive more money from taxes that have introduced to the mining companies, such as corporate, income, etc. rather than mining licenses and rights.
6. Finally, the direct economic contribution of gold mining in the world economy has grown by seven times from 2000 to 2013.
Positive effects seen in PGI for the second year
Editing: Dimitris Stamoulis
The platinum jewelry sales in the United States increased for the second consecutive year and this trend is expected to continue in 2015, according to the results of a recent survey barometer-consumption by the Platinum Guild International (Platinum Guild International).
Sales of platinum jewelery rose about 8% million by volume in 2014. However, according to the PGI, while jewelery sales per unit rose 5%, the value corresponding to those quantities jewelery grew by just 2%, “lower initial expectations “of PGI, since the estimate was for growth of about 5-6%.
The increase in sales in jewelry total number of units is the result of great discount offers on the part of retailers, in the body.
The PGI also describes the following factors that contributed to the results of 2014 in respect of platinum jewelry sales.
-- New platinum jewelery launched in the retail market at a lower price sale. This supports a broad trend in jewelery demand for the past three years, according to PGI. That is, that consumers want to buy jewelry, but choose to buy products that are lower selling prices. With platinum prices about the same level as gold, consumers are choosing this metal for jewelery, instead of the traditional jewelry of gold or gold plated metal.
-- Positive role played and the best marketing on the part of the platinum jewelry industry. Both PGI and the platinum jewelers have organized several successful products and promotional campaigns aspiring to increase their related sales.
-- Interesting stops arise from the consumption behavior of different generations. Consumers belonging to the “Millennium Generation” -ilikies between 18 and 33 years old today - looking for unique jewelry. Unlike so-called baby boomers, ie the first post-war generation, who wanted the same things held by neighbors, the Millennium generation wants something different and unique. The PGI notes that based on the fact that platinum is not yet mainstream in the US is estimated as something “different” from this generation of consumers in relation to what choose their friends or parents.
-- Strengthen the demand for diamond engagement rings. More and more couples are returning to the market engagement ring tradition, and appear more positively to obtain platinum ring with diamond knotted surrounded by other gems.
-- The price of platinum and gold in the goods market continues to move at the same levels for both metals. In 2014 the average price of platinum was $ 1,386 per ounce, while gold was $ 1,266 per ounce. This means that a platinum jewelry can be purchased more easily as it has a similar price with a similar appearance jewelry of white gold.
Based on the survey findings, the World Platinum Guild believes that the market for platinum jewelery will grow sales by volume and per unit of around 6% in 2015.
“Demand for platinum jewelery will remain strong this year, and we estimate that the growth rate of demand in the platinum market will be higher than those of the overall jewelry market,” noted executives PGI.
The survey of PGI, «Retail Barometer Study», took place at the global level with the participation of 400 retailers and approximately 40,000 retail outlets in China, India, Japan and the United States, and was conducted between January and February 2015.
Ends the gold mining over the next 20 years?
Very rarely will be two decades from now precious metals according to the latest estimates of Goldman Sachs. At the international firm, stocks are in precious metals such as gold, and precious stones such as diamonds increasingly limited, while mining is expected to be made until the next twenty years. Stocks of other useful but less rare metals, such as copper and nickel, and precious platinum is adequate Ms. lypsoun demand for the next forty years.
The combination of very low concentration of minerals in the earth’s crust and very few high quality stock means that some metals are really rare, he noted Eugene King, precious metals analyst of Goldman Sachs.
Scarcity of metals and belief among market participants that the new discoveries will be limited, pushes up the price of rare and extremely rare goods at the King, who also provides that gold production is expected to peak this year to follow the retreat .
The annual report of WGC speaks 2152.9 tons
Editing: Dimitris Stamoulis
Global demand for gold in 2014 amounted to 3923.7 tons, according to the annual report of the World Council of Gold (WGC). Demand for gold jewelery dropped by 10% and was reduced to 2152.9 tons, though declined by 5% compared to the average of the last five years. Investing in gold grew by 2% and amounted to 904.6 tonnes, while investment in gold bars and coins fell more and the record low of 2013. The central banks bought 477.2 tons approaching record fifty years. The ongoing economic crisis afflicting many parts of the world, had the effect of reducing to 389 tons of industrial and technological use of gold recording a record low for the past 11 years. Concerning the total supply of gold mining companies, was firm: production from mines peaked amounting to 3114.4 tons, but production of gold recycling was the worst of the last seven years.
In particular, regarding the jewelry industry, the image formed in 2014 is as follows:
Significant demand due to large events and the significant number of marriages in India, strong demand in the period of Christmas in the United States and Great Britain and overall demand 2152.9 tons, a figure reduced by 10% compared to the previous year.
2014 was a very good year for the Indian jewelry industry, as demand reached a record 662.1 tons exceeding by 8% in the demand of 2013. And all this despite the fact that the Indian Government has taken steps to limit importation of gold for years. The wedding jewelry led demand and very high initiations and the festival jewelry.
The American jewelery had a constantly upward trend in gold demand last year. Especially the last quarter of 2014 was the seventh consecutive lending growth and also was the strongest fourth quarter since 2009. Similarly, the total demand of 132.4 tonnes of gold in the US jewelry industry was the highest in the last five years. However, as the WGC, these market demand levels remain very low in relation to the pre-crisis. It is significant that between 2000 and 2006 demand was 360 tonnes.
Expect jump 1400 USD. For gold
Very positive developments envisaged for the international price of gold, if confirmed estimates Capital Economics. In particular, the analyst Julian Jessop refers to impending leap to $ 1,400 per ounce for the yellow precious metal by the end of 2015, and expects increased demand after gold remains a safe haven.
“We still anticipate jump gold in the coming years, with the forecast for 2015 at US $ 1,400 / ounce, well above the median estimate,” says analyst Capital Economics. H Capital Economics estimates that the Fed will proceed at a more aggressive rate rise than markets expect, and rise in the dollar against other major currencies.
Past ... phone shaping the gold price
Finally a tradition ninety-six years was given Friday, March 20, regarding the process of setting international prices of gold. Specifically, for the last time on March 19 the price of the bar set by the trader of four banks, namely Barclays, of HSBC, Scotiabank and the Societe Generale, through the telephone conference.
Plus, the technology “won” and the auctions will be made online, the platform LBMA Gold Price, with prices is readily available to all investors.
Note that gold was the final precious metal left the old-fashioned way of determining the price index, which favored manipulation. It is characteristic that in 2014, the bank Barclays «punished” with a fine of EUR 33 million as of trader confessed that he had made in altering the price of gold.
Thomson Reuters GFMS and Goldman Sachs predict about 1200 dollars. / Oz
Editing: Dimitris Stamoulis
At a level of around $ 1,170 per ounce expects to move gold for 2015 analyst Andrew Leyland, who is director at bullion demand part of Thomson Reuters GFMS. Research firm itself to develop its own forecasts, made a poll among other market analysts bullion and space trading companies. The result of the participation of 38 different industry representatives gave an average height of $ 1,234 per ounce.
In Leyland, the main reasons leading to the expectation of reducing the average price per ounce of gold this year compared to the high price it had at the beginning of 2015, but also in relation to the average of 2014, partly related to strengthening of the US dollar. The American economy is generally expected to strengthen its position as compared to the weaker economies in Europe and Japan and a slowdown recorded in some of the emerging markets - Brazil, China, and a major slowdown in Russia, due to the fall oil prices and the Western sanctions. Another factor that will influence developments in the gold price is the expected increase in USA.
Its own forecast has done the British Association London Bullion Market Association, with the participation of 35 analysts representing 31 different companies. Based on these results, most participants expect gold prices to remain at that level in 2015, with an average somewhere in the $ 1,211 per ounce, certainly very close to the forecast of Thomson Reuters GFMS.
Regarding the lower prices, the Leyland provides that gold will fall to $ 1,050 per ounce, while the maximum value is expected to reach $ 1,340 per ounce. “We expect the most difficult quarter being the first of the year, and everyone generally reassessing their portfolios at the beginning of the year.”
With the news that the Swiss went on disconnection of their currency by the euro and people see that the Swiss franc has a little more instability, more and more are investing their money in gold, driving the price of the precious metal at higher levels in January. But with a major sell-off is expected mid-year, the second quarter is projected to be the weakest in relation to gold prices. And the year could end with a slight rise, paving the way for a recovery next year.
“I think most people see all this as a minimum for the gold price,” said Leyland. “We had a couple of years of decline. Most people believe that the gold price will stabilize and will increase after 2015, but there might be a chance to see even lower prices. “
According to a recent survey of Kitco.com, the Goldman Sachs expresses similar estimates as expects gold prices to remain stable in the first quarter, to fall further in the second and third quarter and continue to even fall in 2016.
On the demand for gold jewelery, Leyland emphasized that the US jewelry market recorded a slight rise in sales in 2014, but the gold jewelry had a significant positive trend. This is partly due to consumer willingness to spend more money on jewelry market in 2015, and the choice of many retailers to promote their jewelry from yellow gold.
Greenspan provides gold and platinum anode
“Something big” provides that happens in the global economy in the coming period the former chairman of the Federal Reserve (FED), Alan Greenspan, talking to the analyst Lloydine O’Brien, who conveyed his views to the media.
According to 89chrono investment adviser (now), a change in policy followed QE and low interest rates will be decided some time and then there will be considerable turbulence in the markets.
A. Greenspan provides that the US and the West in general can not get out of the era of “massive printing money without any important consequences,” which he said would “be very serious.”
The problem starts under Lloydine from the massive amount of debt that has accumulated in these economies and the deal will come only with currency devaluation. Whatever happens, however, after the change of the quantitative easing policy, Greenspan predicted that gold will emerge stronger from this, as well as platinum.
Among other things, as the Lloydine, the veteran economist major concern and the euro issue, namely the issue of Greece, about which believes that the only solution is a Greek exit from the Eurozone. Asked not about whether this would lead to a new global economic crisis, Greenspan appeared negative and added that “the maintenance of the system as it creates more pressure at all.”